This WP will address RA3 and contribute to answering HTE RQ4 (‘What are the future impacts of these extreme events on the Antarctic?’). It will map out ranges of future extreme conditions over Antarctica in unprecedented detail by extracting information from the output of hundreds of climate model simulations. The new capability developed in WP2.4 will use this information to explore impacts on melt lakes on ice shelves. A core legacy will be the provision of ecosystem-relevant information on extreme events for ongoing and future research into broader impacts.

WP3.1 Future projections of extreme events

• Specific objective 3.1: Quantify the behaviour of Antarctic extreme events under 21st century climate change scenarios.

WP3.2 Impacts of future extreme events on Antarctic ice shelves

• Specific objective 3.2: Quantify impacts of projected future extreme events on surface melt and ice shelf stability.