This work package will address RA1 and contribute to answering HTE RQ1 (‘What are the relative contributions of drivers of extreme weather events in the Antarctic?’) and RQ3 (‘What are the trends and variability in Antarctic extreme weather and climate events?’).

It will investigate the mechanisms by which regional and large-scale conditions drive extreme events and attribute the roles of anthropogenic forcing factors in specific observed cases. The mechanisms considered span the range from

• (1) associated local phenomena in the vicinity of the extreme event, such as föhn winds, which generate anomalous warmth on the lee side of mountain ranges (e.g. the Antarctic Peninsula) [13] to
• (2) regional-scale phenomena such as cyclones and ARs, to
• (3) larger-scale and remote conditions (LSRCs), which comprise circumpolar westerly winds, the Southern Annular Mode (SAM), the Amundsen Sea Low (ASL), the stratospheric polar vortex, Antarctic sea ice extent, El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the Inter-decadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) and Atlantic Multi-decadal Variability (AMV) with scope for others to be added.